The Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research

Blackburn, K.,Forgues-Puccio, G.F.,(2007). 'Why is Corruption Less Harmful in Some Countries Than in Others?', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 88. View abstract or download PDF file (359KB)

Agénor, P-R., Montiel, P.J.,(2007). 'Credit Market Imperfections and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Part II: Flexible Exchange Rates', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 87. View abstract or download PDF file (359KB)

Bratsiotis, G.J., Peng, B.,(2006). 'Social Interaction and Effort in a Success-at-Work Augmented Utility Model', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 86. View abstract or download PDF file (186KB)

Bataa, E., Kim, D.H., Osborn, D.R.,(2006). 'New Evidence on the Expectations Theory for UK Term Structure', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 85. View abstract or download PDF file (483KB)

Bataa, E., Kim, D.H., Osborn, D.R.,(2006). 'Does Spread Really Predict the Short Rate? Explaining Empirical Anomalies in the Expectations Theory', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 84. View abstract or download PDF file (3597KB)

Agénor, P-R.,(2006). 'A Theory of Infrastructure-led Development', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 83. View abstract or download PDF file (501KB)

Blackburn, K., Sarmah, R .,(2006). 'Red Tape, Corruption and Finance', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 82. View abstract or download PDF file (283KB)

Berardi, M.,(2006). 'Monetary policy with heterogeneous and misspecified expectations', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 81. View abstract or download PDF file (356KB)

Angeles, L., Neanidis, K.C.,(2006). 'Aid Effectiveness: The Role of the Local Elite', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 80. View abstract or download PDF file (710KB)

Zhang, C., Osborn, D.R., Kim, D.H.,(2006). 'Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 79. View abstract or download PDF file (337KB)

Zhang, C., Osborn, D.R., Kim, D.H.,(2006). 'The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 78. View abstract or download PDF file (391KB)

Savva, C.S.,Osborn, D.R., Gill, L.,(2006). 'Periodic Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Stock Markets in Europe and the US', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 77. View abstract or download PDF file (396KB)

Agénor, P-R., Montiel, P.J.,(2006). 'Credit Market Imperfections and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Part I: Fixed Exchange Rates', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 76. View abstract or download PDF file (422KB)

Attfield, C.L.F. , Temple, R.R.W.,(2006). 'Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 75. View abstract or download PDF file (604KB)

Blackburn, K. , Varvarigos, D.,(2006). 'Human Capital Accumulation in a Stochastic Environment: Some New Results on the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 74. View abstract or download PDF file (262KB)

Agénor, P-R., Yilmaz, D.,(2006). 'The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 73. View abstract or download PDF file (1378KB)

Bataa, E., Kim, D.H., Osborn, D.R.,(2006). 'A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis
for the Term Structure', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 72. View abstract or download PDF file (6307KB)

Neanidis, K.C., Savva, C.S.,(2006). 'The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 71. View abstract or download PDF file (129KB)

Jahjah, S., Montiel, P.,(2006). 'Devaluation, Debt, and Default in Emerging Economies', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 70. View abstract or download PDF file (341KB)

Agénor, P-R., Neanidis, K.C.,(2006). 'The Allocation of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 69. View abstract or download PDF file (2195KB)

Agénor, P-R. (2006). 'External Shocks and the Urban Poor', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 68. View abstract or download PDF file (422KB)

Haque, M.E., Kneller, R.,(2005). 'Corruption Clubs: Endogenous Thresholds in Corruption and Development', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 67. View abstract or download PDF file (641KB)

Angeles, L.,(2005). 'Income Inequality and Colonialism', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 66. View abstract or download PDF file (421KB)

Angeles, L.,(2005). 'Capital Account Openness and Bankruptcies', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 65. View abstract or download PDF file (354KB)

Savva, C.S.,Osborn, D.R., Gill, L.,(2005). 'Spillovers and Correlations between US and Major European Stock Markets: The Role of the Euro', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 64. View abstract or download PDF file (469KB)

Bratsiotis, G.J.,. (2005). 'Influential Price and Wage Setters, Monetary Policy and Real Effects', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 63. View abstract or download PDF file (395KB)

Agénor, P-R. (2005). 'Health and Infrastructure in Models of Endogenous Growth', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 62. View abstract or download PDF file (2739KB)

Agénor, P-R. (2005). 'Schooling and Public Capital in a Model of Endogenous Growth', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 61. View abstract or download PDF file (926KB)

Agénor, P-R. (2005). 'Infrastructure Investment and Maintenance Expenditure: Optimal Allocation Rules in a Growing Economy', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 60. View abstract or download PDF file (1800KB)

Agénor, P-R. (2005). 'Fiscal Policy and Endogenous Growth with Public Infrastructure', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 59. View abstract or download PDF file (1424KB)

Neanidis, K.C., (2005). 'Aid, Budgetary Policies, and the Macroeconomy: Growth, Inflation, and Welfare', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 58. View abstract or download PDF file (747KB)

Bose, N., Holman, J.A., Neanidis, K.C., (2005). 'The Optimal Public Expenditure Financing Policy: Does the Level of Economic Development Matter?', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 57. View abstract or download PDF file (330KB)

Neanidis, K.C., Varvarigos, D. ,(2005). 'The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth: Volatility of Disbursements and Distribution of Receipts', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 56. View abstract or download PDF file (306KB)

Blackburn, K. , Sarmah, R., (2005). 'Corruption, Development and Demography', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 55. View abstract or download PDF file (289KB)

Blackburn, K. , Forgues-Puccio, G.F., (2005). 'Financial Liberalisation, Bureaucratic Corruption and Economic Development ', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 54. View abstract or download PDF file (308KB)

Blackburn, K. , Bose, N. and Haque M.E. (2005). 'Public Expenditures, Bureaucratic Corruption and Economic Development', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 53. View abstract or download PDF file (372KB)

Agénor, P-R. (2005).‘The Analytics of Segmented Labor Markets’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 52. View abstract or download PDF file (736KB)

Kim, D.H..(2005) ‘Nonlinearity in the Term Structure’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 51. View abstract or download PDF file (608KB)

Osborn, D. R, Perez, P.R and Sensier, M.(2005) 'Business Cycle Linkages for the G7 Countries: Does the US Lead the World?', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 50. View abstract or download PDF file (1001KB)

Varvarigos, D. (2005). 'Policy Variability in Models of Endogenous Growth with Productive Spending', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 49. View abstract or download PDF file (183KB)

Blackburn, K. and Varvarigos, D. (2005). 'Growth, Uncertainty and Finance', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 48. View abstract or download PDF file (237KB)

Agénor, P-R. (2005). 'Infrastructure, Public Education and Growth with Congestion Costs', Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 47. View abstract or download PDF file (419KB)

Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2004). ‘Modelling UK Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 46. View abstract or download PDF file (522KB).

van Dijk, D., Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2004). ‘Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 45. View abstract or download PDF file (718KB), also download appendix file (2,271KB).

Kesriyeli, M., Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. and (2004). ‘Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 44. View abstract or download PDF file (789KB).

Agénor, P-R. (2004). ‘The Macroeconomics of Poverty Reduction’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 43. View abstract or download PDF file (845KB).

Blackburn, K., and Forgues-Puccio G.F. (2004). ‘Distribution and Development in a Model of Misgovernance’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 42. View abstract or download PDF file (439KB).

Andreou, E., Pelloni, A. and Sensier, M. (2003). ‘The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 40. View abstract or download PDF file (1,172KB).

Osborn, D. R., Sensier, M. and van Dijk, D. (2003). ‘Predicting Growth Cycle Regimes for European Countries’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 39. View abstract or download PDF file (306KB). Forthcoming in CEPR book edited by Lucrezia Reichlin The euro area business cycle: stylized facts and measurement issues.

Osborn, D. R. and Matas-Mir, A. (2003). ‘The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 38. View abstract or download PDF file (1,119KB).

Pérez, P.J., Osborn, D. R. and Artis, M. (2003). ‘The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 37. View abstract or download PDF file (1,441KB).

Sensier, M. and van Dijk, D. (2003). ‘Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 36. View abstract or download PDF file (655KB). Published in Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, vol. 86(3), pp. 833-839.

Mejía-Reyes, P., Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2004). ‘Modelling Real Exchange Rate Effects on Output Performance in Latin America’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 35. View abstract or download PDF file (1,185KB).

Blackburn, K., Bose, N. and Haque M.E. (2003). ‘The Incidence and Persistence of Corruption in Economic Development’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 34. View abstract or download PDF file (467KB).

Pérez, P.J. (2001). ‘Cyclical properties in the main western economies’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 33. View abstract or download PDF file (1,916KB).

Capasso, C. (2003). ‘Stock Market Development and Economic Growth:A matter of informational problems’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 32. View abstract or download PDF file (488KB).

Haque, M.E. and Kim, D.H. (2003). ‘Public Investment in Transportation and Communication and Growth:A Dynamic Panel Approach’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 31. View abstract or download PDF file (323KB).

Bose, N., Haque, M.E. and Osborn, D. R. (2003). ‘Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A disaggregated Analysis for Developing Countries’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 30. View abstract or download PDF file (250KB).

Pérez, P.J., Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2003). ‘Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 29. View abstract or download PDF file (1,701KB).

Issa,H. (2003). ‘Human capital, Demographic Transition and Economic Growth’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 28. View abstract or download PDF file (415KB).

Aslanidis, N., Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2003). ‘Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 27. View abstract or download PDF file (998KB).

Matas-Mir, A. and Osborn, D. R. (2003). ‘Seasonal Adjustment and the Detection of Business Cycle Phases’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 26. View abstract or download PDF file (919KB).

Blackburn, K. and Galindev, R. (2003). ‘Growth, volatility and learning’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 25. View abstract or download PDF file (265KB). Published in Economic Letters, 2003, vol.79, pp.417-421.

Bratsiotis, G. J.and Martin, C. (2002). ‘Monetary Policy Rules, Real Rigidity and Endogenous Persistence’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 24. View abstract or download PDF file (414KB).

Bratsiotis, G. J.and Robinson, W. (2002). ‘Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 23. View abstract or download PDF file (683KB). Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 23(4), pp. 595-613.

Blackburn, K., Bose, N. and Haque, M. E. (2002). ‘Endogenous Corruption in Economic Development’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 22. View abstract or download PDF file (520KB).

Kaas, L. and Madden, P. (2002). ‘Equilibrium Involuntary Unemployment Under Oligempory’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 21. View abstract or download PDF file (388KB).

Kaas, L. and Madden, P. (2002). ‘Imperfectly Competitive Cycles with Keynesian and Walrasian Features’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 20. View abstract or download PDF file (412KB).

Kaas, L. and Madden, P. (2002). ‘Competitive Wage Cycles with Imperfect Output Market Competition’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 19. View abstract or download PDF file (311KB).

Kim, D.H., Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2002). ‘Nonlinearity in the Fed's Monetary Policy Rule’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 18. View abstract or download PDF file (507KB). Forthcoming in Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Artis, M. (2002). ‘Dating the Business Cycle in Britain’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 17. Download PDF file (476KB). Published in National Institute Economic Review, October 2002, no. 182, pp. 90-95.

van Dijk, D., Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2002). ‘Changes in Variability of the Business Cycle in the G7 Countries’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 16. View abstract or download PDF file (1,496KB) also download appendix file (2,195KB).

Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2002). ‘The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 15. View abstract or download PDF file (500KB).  Published in National Institute Economic Review, October 2002, no. 182, pp. 96-105.

Blackburn, K. and Cipriani, G.P. (2002). ‘Intergenerational Transfers and Demographic Transition’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 14. View abstract or download PDF file (1863KB). Forthcoming in Journal of Development Economics.

Blackburn, K. and Issa, H. (2002). ‘Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 13. View abstract or download PDF file (1602KB).

Blackburn, K. and Pelloni, A. (2002). ‘Growth, Cycles and Stabilisation Policy’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 12. View abstract or download PDF file (1410KB). Oxford Economic Papers.

Sensier, M., Artis, M., Birchenhall, C. R., and Osborn, D. R. (2002). ‘Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 11. View abstract or download PDF file (659KB). Published in International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, vol. 20, pp. 343-357.

Sensier, M., Osborn, D. R. and Öcal, N. (2002). ‘Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 10. View abstract or download PDF file (754KB). Published in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, September 2002, vol. 64, no. 4, pp. 315-339.

Matas-Mir, A. and Osborn, D. R. (2001). ‘Does Seasonality Change over the Business Cycle? An Investigation using Monthly Industrial Production Series’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 9. View abstract or download PDF file (3,784KB). Published in the European Economic Review, vol. 48, pp. 1309-1332.

Sensier, M. and van Dijk, D. (2001). ‘Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 8. View abstract or download PDF file (1021KB). Updated version of this paper is now CGBCR discussion paper 36.

Blackburn, K., Bose, N. and Capasso, S. (2005). ‘Financial Development, Financing Choice and Economic Growth’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 7. View abstract or download PDF file (207KB). Review of Development Economics, vol.9(2), pp.135-149.

Blackburn, K. and Bose, N. (2001). ‘A Model of Trickle Down Through Learning’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 6. View abstract or download PDF file (212KB). Published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2003, vol. 27, pp. 445-466.

Blackburn, K. and Bose, N. (2001). ‘Information, Imitation and Growth’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 5. View abstract or download PDF file (233KB). Published in the Journal of Development Economics, 2003, vol.70, pp.201-223..

Kim, D. H. (2002).‘Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 4.  View abstract or download PDF file (465KB).

Barrios, S., Brülhart, M., Elliott, R.J.R. and Sensier, M. (2002). ‘A Tale of Two Cycles:  Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 3. View abstract or download PDF file (1120KB). Published in The Manchester School, 2003, vol. 71 (3), pp. 265-292.

Birchenhall, C. R., Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (2000). ‘Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 2.  View abstract or download PDF file (183KB). Published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2001, vol. 48(2), pp. 179-195. 

Blackburn, K. and Pelloni, A. (2001). ‘On the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility in Learning-by-Doing Economies’, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 1. View abstract or download PDF file (207KB). Published in Economics Letters, vol. 83(1), pp.123-127.