Background, Curriculum Vitae, Current Research Interests, Research Projects
and
Denise holds degrees from the University of Sydney (B.Ec. and M.Ec.) and the London School of Economics (PhD). Subsequent to completing her PhD in 1975, she worked for two years at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research as a member of the modeling and forecasting team. She came to the University of Manchester as a Lecturer in Econometrics in 1977, becoming a Professor in 1992. Her primary research interest has always been the modeling of macroeconomic time series, but she has also undertaken research in crime victimisation. Her current interests focus primarily on issues associated with monetary policy and nonlinear modeling of a wide range of economic and financial time series.
Editorial positions held include Associate Editor of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1992-1997. Currently she is an Associate Editor of The Manchester School and a member of the Editorial Boards of the Journal of Applied Econometrics, Economic Issues and Ekonomia. She has been a member of the Academic Econometric Panel of the UK Office for National Statistics and the Academic Panel of HM Treasury.
Denise is a member of the Economics and Econometrics and also the Business and Management sub-panels for the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise. She was also a member and vice-chair of the Economics and Econometrics Panel for the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise. Currently she is chair of the Conference of University Departments of Economics (CHUDE), which includes the heads of 98 Departments of Economics in the UK. For the ESRC is she a member of the Research Evaluation Committee and has previously been a member of the Training Board. She was also a member of the Benchmarking Group in Economics set up by the Quality Assurance Agency for Higher Education. For the Royal Economic Society, she was the inaugural chair of the Women's Committee and is now a member of both the Council and the Executive Committee.
Her publications include a recent Cambridge University Press book, The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series (joint with Eric Ghysels). In addition, she has published more than 40 papers in refereed academic journals, a number of book chapters and papers for non-academic audiences.
Denise has supervised sixteen successfully completed PhDs, and currently has seven PhD students (all except one jointly supervised). These students are working on topics in applied macroeconomics and financial econometrics.
Most of Denise's current research involves work with colleagues in the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research (CGBCR), which is based in Economic Studies at the University of Manchester.
Her current research interests are primarily concerned with empirical business cycle modelling, seasonality and modelling financial time series.
ESRC project 'Monetary Policy, business cycles and economic growth' (with Keith Blackburn, Paul Madden and Elena Andreou), under the Understanding the Evolving Macroeconomy Programme, Phase II, 1 July 2001 - 30 June 2004.
Leverhulme Project 'International growth and business cycles' (with Mike Artis, Keith Blackburn and Elena Andreou), January 1999 - December 2001.
Bank of England Project 'International growth and business cycles' (with Keith Blackburn and Mike Artis).
ESRC Project 'Financial variables and the business cycle' (with Elena Andreou), October 1997 - December 1998.
Papers are listed under the following topics:
Predicting business cycle regimes
Predicting business cycle regimes
The prediction of business cycle phases: financial variables and international linkages (with Marianne Sensier). National Institute Economic Review, October 2002. CGBCR Discussion Paper Number 15, University of Manchester. View abstract or download PDF file.
Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe (with Marianne Sensier, Michael J. Artis and Chris Birchenhall). CGBCR Discussion Paper Number 11, University of Manchester. Revised February 2003. View abstract or download PDF file. International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, vol.20, pp.343-357.
Predicting
UK business cycle regimes (with Chris R. Birchenhall and Marianne Sensier).
CGBCR Discussion Paper Number 2, University of Manchester. November
2000. View abstract or download
PDF file. Scottish
Journal of Political Economy, 2001, vol. 48, pp.179-195.
Predicting US business cycle regimes (with Chris Birchenhall, Hans Jensen and Paul Simpson). Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 17, 1999, pp.313-323. Published paper does not include detailed results. Full version is available to download in PDF format.
Forecasting and the UK business cycle (with Marianne Sensier and Paul Simpson). Chapter 7 in D.F. Hendry and N.R. Ericsson (eds.), Understanding Economic Forecasts, MIT Press, 2001.
Modelling real exchange rate effects on output performance in Latin America (with Pablo Mejia-Reyes and Marianne Sensier). CGBCR Discussion Paper Number 35, University of Manchester. July 2004. View abstract or download PDF file.
Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks (with Dick van Dijk and Marianne Sensier). CGBCR Discussion Paper Number 45, University of Manchester. November 2004. View abstract or download PDF file. Also Appendix.
Linear versus neural network forecasts for European industrial production series (with Saeed Heravi and C. R. Birchenhall). February 2003. Download PDF file. Revised version published in International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, vol.20, pp.435-446.
Asymmetric interest rate effects for the UK real economy (with Marianne Sensier and Nadir Ocal). CGBCR Discussion Paper Number 10, University of Manchester. May 2002. View abstract or download PDF file. Revised version published in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2002, vol. 64, pp.315-339.
Modelling business cycle movements in the UK economy (with Paul Simpson and Marianne Sensier). Economica, 2001, vol. 68, pp.243-267. Download PDF file.
Forecasting UK industrial production over the business cycle (with Paul Simpson and Marianne Sensier). Journal of Forecasting, 2001, vol. 20, pp.405-424. Download PDF file.
Modelling business cycle nonlinearities in UK consumption and production (with Nadir Öcal), Journal of Applied Econometrics , 2000, vol.15, pp.27-43. Download PDF file.
The
Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series (with Eric Ghysels). Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots in Periodic Integrated Autoregressive Processes (with Tomas del Barrio Castro). Revised March 2005. Download PDF file.
The extent of seasonal/business cycle interactions in European industrial production (with Antonio Matas-Mir). Invited paper at the Colloquium "Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis", organised by EUROSTAT and DG FIN, Luxembourg, October 2003. Download PDF file.
Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series (with Antonio Matas Mir). CGBCR Discussion Paper Number 9, University of Manchester. View abstract or download PDF file. Revised version published in European Economic Review, 2004, vol. 48, pp.1309-1332.
Modelling
property crime using the British Crime Survey: What have we learnt? (with
Andromachi Tseloni, Alan Trickett and Ken Pease). British
Journal of Criminology, vol. 42, 2002, pp.109-128.
The phenomena of multiple victimisation: the relationship between personal and property crime risk (with Tim Hope, Jane Bryan and Alan Trickett)., British Journal of Criminology, 2001, vol. 41, pp.595-617.
An investigation into quarterly crime and its relationship to the economy. Chapter 5 in Ziggy MacDonald and David Pyle (eds.), Illicit Activity: The Economics of Crime, Drugs and Tax Fraud, Ashgate Publishers, 2000.
Details of additional recent publications in areas related to business cycles and dynamic time series modelling can be found on the CGBCR website.
Last updated 8 April 2005.